Money and Bankroll Management
There are many articles on the internet about money management systems and bankroll management strategies with different approaches, however, we recommend that you use our method while following our picks. We use a 1 to 10 unit staking plan with 10 units as the top rated full stake play. Using our regular picks with the 3% compounding strategy explained further below in this article will help you double your bankroll on average every 3 months. This means, if you start with a $2500 bankroll, you can expect your bankroll to reach $5000 with in 3 months and then to $10,000 in another 3 months and so on. Sample of our results spreadsheet will show our money management in action with our regular picks and how it rapidly grows the bankroll in a period of few months. Now lets get on to discussing the money/bankroll money management:
Choose a bankroll that you can afford. Once you have the starting bankroll, don't bet any more than 3% of your starting bankroll on a single bet -- this means, the max bet (10 unit bet) is no more than 3% of your bankroll. So each unit is 0.3% of the bankroll. Here is the table: 1unit=0.3%, 2unit=0.6%, 3unit=0.9%, 4unit=1.2%, 5unit=1.5%, 6unit=1.8%, 7unit=2.1%, 8unit=2.4%, 9unit=2.7% and 10unit=3%.
If you are an established bettor with a big betting capital, you would bet fixed or same amount on every unit (linear betting) regardless of the outcome of each bet. For example, if your starting bankroll is $150,000, then your 1 unit equals $450 and this is the unit size you would use on your bets regardless of how much you win/lose each day.
If you are a bettor with limited capital looking to grow the bankroll then we suggest that you employ our conditional daily compounding method. This method will help you double your bankroll much faster. In this method you will re-invest winning everyday into the bankroll to form a new starting bankroll and bet size. If there is losing day(s), the bet size will remain the same as the previous bet size until the losses are recovered and the bankroll reaches a new high. In summary, each day the bankroll reaches a new high, it becomes the new starting bankroll and the bet size will be adjusted accordingly but if you have a losing day, continue with the same bet size until new high is reached. For example, if your starting bankroll is $30,000, then your max bet (10 unit bet) is 3% of 30k, $900. On day 1 if you win $1800, then your starting bankroll on day 2 is $31,800 and your max bet on day 2 is 3% of $31.8K, $954. If you have a losing day on day 2, then your bet size on day 3 will remain the same $954 and it will remain the same until you re-coup all the losses and the bankroll surpasses $31.8k and reaches a new high. You can continue this conditional compounding method until you reach your target bankroll or bet size but don't be greedy! With this compounding method and with our picks you can double your bankroll on average every 3 months. This means, if you start with a $2500 bankroll, you can expect your bankroll to reach $5000 with in 3 months and then to $10,000 with in 6 months...$40,000 with in 12 months Sample of our results spreadsheet will show our money management in action with our regular picks.
Note 1: If your starting bankroll is small and if you want to be aggressive, you may temporarily set your max bet to 4 or 5% of your bankroll, however, we highly do not recommend this long term. Contrarily, if your bankroll is very large and you want to be be very conservative, you can set your max bet to 2% of the bankroll or less. Threshold for bankruptcy using different max bet are as follows: 1% max bet = 1000 unit downswing, 1.5% max bet = 666.67 units downswing, 2% max bet = 500 units downswing, 2.5% max bet = 400 units downswing, 3% max bet = 333.33 units downswing, 3.5% max bet = 285.71 units downswing, 4.5% max bet = 250 units downswing, 5% max bet = 200 units downswing.
Note 2: If you are following both regular and full-stake 10-unit picks, treat them as two different investment portfolios. This means using two bankrolls. To accomplish this, simply divide your bankroll into two in the ratio of 50-50 or a reatio tht gives higher weight to the full-stake 10 unit picks to create two portfolios. Use one portfolio to follow ONLY the full stake 10 unit picks and use the other to follow ALL picks (both regular and full-stake picks.) You can track each of your portfolios by using our spreadsheet template
Note 3: You must use a dedicated bankroll/portfolio to follow our picks and do not use this portfolio to follow your own picks or anyone else's pick. If you must follow other picks, create a separate portfolio/bankroll. This is the best way to maximize profit with our picks and avoid leaks.
Few More General Words on Money Management for everyone
Determining the appropriate bet size is a bit difficult for many, but it's not hard once you understand the basic concepts involved. The goal is to bet enough to maximize winnings while keeping plenty in reserve to withstand any potential losing streak. Because you could be the best handicapper in the world, but if you lose all your money during a bad run, you're done - it's that simple. You have to be conservative enough to keep yourself in action, during good times and bad. And the amount of your bankroll will determine your standard bet size. Few folks recommend this, but we think your percentage of bankroll that you should be willing to risk on each and every play does vary depending on the size of your bankroll. Here's why:
Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars or a grand - somewhere in that range. For bettors with larger 'rolls a standard play involves around 2%-3% of their bankroll. For example, with 10k to invest in sports betting, the standard wager size should be between $220 to win $200 or $330 to win $300. But if you only have $200 to begin with, betting 2% of your bankroll equals a $4 bet. Not much fun or excitement to win four bucks, nor much profit when you do win. That's why, with lesser bankrolls, I'd advocate a more aggressive betting strategy for the short term; somewhere in the range of 5% - 7.5%. You have to be able to win something, and beginning bettors with this type of bankroll generally aren't as concerned from the get-go about riding out a losing period. I would never recommend beginning to get involved with sports betting without a minimum of $1000 in your bankroll, making a standard wager size in the $25 - $50 dollar range perfectly normal and acceptable for beginning bettors. It's high enough to make some kind of profit and enjoy the fruits of your labors when you win, but you can ride out a bad week or two and still be in action.
Bettors with larger bankrolls must bet a lower percentage on each wager. Firstly, you have more to lose, so protecting your investment becomes crucial. It's one thing to lose a couple hundred dollars sports betting; it's quite another to lose a five figure bankroll. And you must think about what will happen if you do lose, because losing, while extremely undesirable, is a possible outcome. A rational bettor accepts this risk, understands it and makes his or her decisions accordingly. When you've got 5k in various accounts offshore, you can afford to take lesser risks to achieve your desired goal of making a profit. Again, the range of 2%-3% makes sense. You still make a nice profit when you win, and you limit your risk of losing your hard earned investment.
Straight bet and flat bet a specific and pre-determined percentage of your bankroll. That's the key. The hard part is having the discipline to do it, every single time. NO exceptions, no wild betting sprees off a big winning weekend or chasing to win back all the losses from a bad week in a single day. There isn't anyone reading this essay who hasn't seen a game that they absolutely loved, a sure winner. The temptation is there to load up on these games, the 'it's a lock to win' mentality. The reality is that when a $50 bettor places a $500 wager on a game, it's no more likely to win than any other game that the same bettor puts $50 on. The goal is always the same: If you can pick more winners than losers, you should show a profit.
The term for this kind of betting pattern is 'grinding'. We're not looking for the big score. Sure, there's someone somewhere who hits a seven team parlay every week, and there's someone else who risks his or her entire bankroll on a single play and wins that bet. But there are many more who don't have that kind of success, and those that do have it rarely maintain that kind of 'luck' over the long term. Eventually, they return everything that they've won back into the bookies hands. The grinders method is much less volatile and much more likely to achieve positive results over the course of a single season, or many, many years.
The bottom line is this: don't look for the quick score, because that's when the odds really are against you. Professional bettors including ourselves don't look for the 6-0 weekend. Rather, our goal is more like a 12-8 week, that coveted 60% winners to losers ratio. A $110 bettor who goes 12-8 for a week will return $320 on a total investment of $2200 for the week, about a 15% return. Ask any stock investor if they'd be happy with a 15% return for a week, and the answer is universally 'YES'. If you can average that kind of return over the long term, and it is quite possible to do so, you'll be betting and winning on sports for years to come, and enjoying the profits from your sports betting investment. Small, steady, regular profit over the long term can only be achieved with a solid money management system such as this one. Remember, be PATIENT, stay DISCIPLINED, and with our picks and money management, you will watch your bankroll grow steadily.